Walking Through the Valley
Here is an interesting story for all you fellow mid-major fans out there. Mid-Major guru Kyle Whelliston of midmajority.com has an great write up on the Missouri Valley Conference over at espn.com. You can read it here.
He also has interesting story on his blog on espn.com insider that talks about how the MVC could get 4 bids to the tourney. This is unheardof for any mid-major conference and while 3 is the most likely scenario for the nations oldest conference, 4 is a definite possibility.
"How the MVC can get four bids
posted: Tuesday, January 24, 2006
SPRINGFIELD, Mo. -- Barry Hinson had been beaming broadly, fielding press conference softballs about how his Missouri State squad had overcome Southern Illinois' defense and gutted out a big home win. But then that question came up.
You know, the one about bids.
"We have five teams within Nos. 1 through 29 in the RPI," Hinson said, his face becoming ashen, his hands trembling. "If there were five teams 30 or below in the ACC, the Pac-10, Big 12, Big East, they'd all go to the NCAA Tournament."
"I would go right now into a courtroom," Hinson said, slapping the table hard to punctuate syllables, his voice achieving the bellow of an expert lawyer. "I would say, 'Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I rest my case.' "If it's this way at the end of February, then we deserve four, maybe five bids to the NCAA Tournament. And I'm not speaking tonight for Missouri State, I'm speaking for the Missouri Valley Conference. I've been in this league for seven years. I can fight for everybody else as well."
Before you go and offer Hinson a retainer to defend your most recent speeding ticket, remember that the MVC season's only half-over. And at this moment, "this way" means no fewer than four teams at 7-2 -- it's just not mathematically likely that Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Southern Illinois and Creighton could enter the conference tourney in St. Louis with 78 percent winning percentages.
"I think you have to be a little bit cautious about drawing a conclusion that if you're the fifth-rated conference, then you should get five or four or three bids," said MVC commissioner Doug Elgin. "At the end of the day, it's going to be how your teams are measured against the other teams that don't win their conference tournaments, that are on the so-called 'bubble.' Who they've played, who they've beaten, and in what sequence."
But there's nothing like a good hot stove argument to warm up January Jaundice, before February Fever kicks in to form the foundation for March Madness. Like the web of scenarios that NFL fans fret over late in the regular season, here's a five-step plan for how a four-bid Valley can happen.
Separation. Since Missouri State's win over SIU last Thursday, the Bears have lost to Wichita State to dip their league record to 5-4. But they still maintain their conference lead in nearly every meaningful statistical category (offensive efficiency, free throws, 3-point field goal percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio and floor percentage). Thinking they're out of it for being two games behind would be premature.
But a second division is definitely forming in the league with those five teams that do not have at-large résumés and do not appear in any way qualified to steal the league title the old-fashioned way -- by sweeping the conference tourney. Bradley and Drake may be .500 teams, but the two ISU's (Indiana and Illinois) and Evansville are lagging behind with four conference wins between the three of them.
Beat each other up equally. All Valley teams have nine games remaining, and a 4BV would require that they beat the bottom teams and split their own toughies. Missouri State has the easiest road to March -- the Bears already have gone through the most rigorous stretch of their schedule, taken their inevitable losses, and have just three games remaining against the four other top teams. Northern Iowa and Wichita State have four, and Southern Illinois has five. Creighton has the toughest road, with six games left against the other elites.
But it's OK if they lose to each other, says the conference's commissioner.
"If our leaders lose to one another, they're not going to be penalized in the RPI," said Elgin. "That's the biggest difference between the Missouri Valley of today and the Missouri Valley five or six years ago."
But not too much separation. Nothing can ruin a conference's day like an RPI-dragger, and No. 222 Evansville is there to play spoiler for the teams trying to polish their digits. Indiana State and Illinois State are No. 157 and 176, respectively.
And the top teams can't lose to the lower teams.
"The bottom could fall out on some of our league leaders," said Elgin. "The one thing that can derail a team's ability to secure an at-large berth is to lose to low-RPI teams. That's what happened to Wichita State last year -- they started 15-1, and they lost seven of their last 10. We can't afford that kind of thing."
So it's imperative that the bottom teams split the games they have with each other to keep their own RPIs at relatively decent levels, then take their losses when the big boys come to town. Evansville, for example, has five of its last nine against the MVC's top tier, and it's in the Four-Bid Valley's best interest if it goes 2-2 in the other four games.
Get 20. Nothing impresses the Selection Committee like the number 20, and whichever teams get to 20 overall wins will have the inside track when it comes to bid time. Northern Iowa is at 17 now, and they're almost guaranteed to get there before the regular season ends.
Wichita (16-4) has five games against the lower division, and should get there before March as well. The only iffies here are 13-4 Creighton and 12-5 Mo-State, which both have anywhere between 10 and 12 chances to get the wins they need.
St. Louis status quo. Having four teams of this top five in the semifinal quartet -- and no surprises -- is perhaps the most crucial element to achieving a 4BV. The two finalists are virtually assured of bids, and it matters how the semifinals went down for the two losers.
So it's possible, but by no means a gimme. If the Valley does get four bids, or even a boring old three, then we'll spend the summer debating that other question. You know, the one about whether the MVC is a mid-major league or not.
"I've never cringed from that label," said Elgin. "I think that the label is pretty much on point. Mid-major doesn't have anything to do with level of play, it's about resources and television exposure."
But the coach of one of those current 7-2 teams is a bit more ambivalent.
"We don't care about the moniker," said Southern Illinois coach Chris Lowery. "Winning is what matters. I don't think other people call us mid-major, because they won't come to [SIU Arena] and play us. So whatever you call that, that's what you can call us."
-Kyle Whelliston for ESPN.com
Enjoy that free section from an espn insider article.
Once again see you at Trask at 7:00. Or hear me at Trask on 980 AM.
He also has interesting story on his blog on espn.com insider that talks about how the MVC could get 4 bids to the tourney. This is unheardof for any mid-major conference and while 3 is the most likely scenario for the nations oldest conference, 4 is a definite possibility.
"How the MVC can get four bids
posted: Tuesday, January 24, 2006
SPRINGFIELD, Mo. -- Barry Hinson had been beaming broadly, fielding press conference softballs about how his Missouri State squad had overcome Southern Illinois' defense and gutted out a big home win. But then that question came up.
You know, the one about bids.
"We have five teams within Nos. 1 through 29 in the RPI," Hinson said, his face becoming ashen, his hands trembling. "If there were five teams 30 or below in the ACC, the Pac-10, Big 12, Big East, they'd all go to the NCAA Tournament."
"I would go right now into a courtroom," Hinson said, slapping the table hard to punctuate syllables, his voice achieving the bellow of an expert lawyer. "I would say, 'Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I rest my case.' "If it's this way at the end of February, then we deserve four, maybe five bids to the NCAA Tournament. And I'm not speaking tonight for Missouri State, I'm speaking for the Missouri Valley Conference. I've been in this league for seven years. I can fight for everybody else as well."
Before you go and offer Hinson a retainer to defend your most recent speeding ticket, remember that the MVC season's only half-over. And at this moment, "this way" means no fewer than four teams at 7-2 -- it's just not mathematically likely that Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Southern Illinois and Creighton could enter the conference tourney in St. Louis with 78 percent winning percentages.
"I think you have to be a little bit cautious about drawing a conclusion that if you're the fifth-rated conference, then you should get five or four or three bids," said MVC commissioner Doug Elgin. "At the end of the day, it's going to be how your teams are measured against the other teams that don't win their conference tournaments, that are on the so-called 'bubble.' Who they've played, who they've beaten, and in what sequence."
But there's nothing like a good hot stove argument to warm up January Jaundice, before February Fever kicks in to form the foundation for March Madness. Like the web of scenarios that NFL fans fret over late in the regular season, here's a five-step plan for how a four-bid Valley can happen.
Separation. Since Missouri State's win over SIU last Thursday, the Bears have lost to Wichita State to dip their league record to 5-4. But they still maintain their conference lead in nearly every meaningful statistical category (offensive efficiency, free throws, 3-point field goal percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio and floor percentage). Thinking they're out of it for being two games behind would be premature.
But a second division is definitely forming in the league with those five teams that do not have at-large résumés and do not appear in any way qualified to steal the league title the old-fashioned way -- by sweeping the conference tourney. Bradley and Drake may be .500 teams, but the two ISU's (Indiana and Illinois) and Evansville are lagging behind with four conference wins between the three of them.
Beat each other up equally. All Valley teams have nine games remaining, and a 4BV would require that they beat the bottom teams and split their own toughies. Missouri State has the easiest road to March -- the Bears already have gone through the most rigorous stretch of their schedule, taken their inevitable losses, and have just three games remaining against the four other top teams. Northern Iowa and Wichita State have four, and Southern Illinois has five. Creighton has the toughest road, with six games left against the other elites.
But it's OK if they lose to each other, says the conference's commissioner.
"If our leaders lose to one another, they're not going to be penalized in the RPI," said Elgin. "That's the biggest difference between the Missouri Valley of today and the Missouri Valley five or six years ago."
But not too much separation. Nothing can ruin a conference's day like an RPI-dragger, and No. 222 Evansville is there to play spoiler for the teams trying to polish their digits. Indiana State and Illinois State are No. 157 and 176, respectively.
And the top teams can't lose to the lower teams.
"The bottom could fall out on some of our league leaders," said Elgin. "The one thing that can derail a team's ability to secure an at-large berth is to lose to low-RPI teams. That's what happened to Wichita State last year -- they started 15-1, and they lost seven of their last 10. We can't afford that kind of thing."
So it's imperative that the bottom teams split the games they have with each other to keep their own RPIs at relatively decent levels, then take their losses when the big boys come to town. Evansville, for example, has five of its last nine against the MVC's top tier, and it's in the Four-Bid Valley's best interest if it goes 2-2 in the other four games.
Get 20. Nothing impresses the Selection Committee like the number 20, and whichever teams get to 20 overall wins will have the inside track when it comes to bid time. Northern Iowa is at 17 now, and they're almost guaranteed to get there before the regular season ends.
Wichita (16-4) has five games against the lower division, and should get there before March as well. The only iffies here are 13-4 Creighton and 12-5 Mo-State, which both have anywhere between 10 and 12 chances to get the wins they need.
St. Louis status quo. Having four teams of this top five in the semifinal quartet -- and no surprises -- is perhaps the most crucial element to achieving a 4BV. The two finalists are virtually assured of bids, and it matters how the semifinals went down for the two losers.
So it's possible, but by no means a gimme. If the Valley does get four bids, or even a boring old three, then we'll spend the summer debating that other question. You know, the one about whether the MVC is a mid-major league or not.
"I've never cringed from that label," said Elgin. "I think that the label is pretty much on point. Mid-major doesn't have anything to do with level of play, it's about resources and television exposure."
But the coach of one of those current 7-2 teams is a bit more ambivalent.
"We don't care about the moniker," said Southern Illinois coach Chris Lowery. "Winning is what matters. I don't think other people call us mid-major, because they won't come to [SIU Arena] and play us. So whatever you call that, that's what you can call us."
-Kyle Whelliston for ESPN.com
Enjoy that free section from an espn insider article.
Once again see you at Trask at 7:00. Or hear me at Trask on 980 AM.
posted by TAH at 11:18 AM
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