Fun Stuff on ESPN.com
If you haven't seen the latest bracketology then you wouldn't know that UNCW is currently being picked to go as an at large bid with an 11 seed. The current opponent being placed as a 6 in the same region is a certain school that plays just a couple hours away up I-40 in a cavernous light blue hole filled with wine and cheese and perenially ungrateful fans. The Tar Heels of UNC. While this would be a fun matchup the odds of it being a 1st round game are pretty much zero. But still I like where your head is at Joe Lunardi. By the way GMU is currently placed as a 9th seed.
The Hawks are also in the bubble watch placed in the others with at large chance category along with GMU and Hofstra.
"NC Wilmington [19-7 (12-3), RPI: 45, SOS: 120] Worth mentioning if UNCW can win the CAA regular-season crown. RPI is dicey for a mid-major at-large. 9-6 road/neutral record helps, but two sub-150 losses don't.
George Mason [19-5 (13-2), RPI: 27, SOS: 81] GMU looking more and more like a legit at-large team, especially if the Patriots can hold off UNCW and Hofstra in the CAA. 4-5 vs RPI Top 100. Game at Wichita State could be an at-large play-in game.
Hofstra [18-4 (11-3), RPI: 56, SOS: 252] Probably not real likely with such a weak SOS, but Pride are one loss behind George Mason and could still snag the CAA crown; would the Committee show some mid-major Pride?"
And Kyle Whelliston had this to say about us in his latest blog entry:
"Top-five Tuesday
When I chat on ESPN.com or browse through my mailbag, the most common sentence-opening phrase is, "Where's the love for … " Don't get me wrong, I have love for all my mid-major brothers and sisters, but please keep in mind that part of my job is to simplify and distill a chaotic world of over 220 teams that play outside the power conferences. There's only so much love to go around.
That being said, there are definitely some teams that haven't received the column inches they've deserved here at The Mid Life, and it's time to correct that. They might play in the long second-place shadow of a league-leading team, or they may be just now starting to peak after a rough stretch. Or maybe they've simply dropped a couple of games at inopportune junctures, games that won't mean anything come tourney time. Here are the top five slept-on teams that may be best positioned to earn some national love in March...
1. UNC Wilmington (Colonial) -- The Seahawks earned some early headlines when they swept the Laramie, Wyo., pod of the BCA Invitational, but they fell off the radar when they lost three straight over Christmas to Charleston, East Carolina and Old Dominion. While that streak (and no BracketBusters participation) have likely killed the Seahawks' NCAA at-large chances, their seven wins in eight games have positioned them just one game behind George Mason for the league lead. While UNCW isn't that impressive shooting-wise, its defense is stifling, only allowing 58.9 points per game (58.2 in conference tilts), and its .874 points allowed per opponent's possession gives them the 10th-best defensive rating in the country. And like Butler, ball control is key: Despite UNCW's lackluster 42.7 percent field-goal percentage, the Seahawks lead the CAA in A/TO (1.2), turnover rate (18.6 percent percent) and assisted-basket percentage (62.2 percent)."
And about Hofstra:
"K-Dub's krazy fact of the day
Speaking of the Colonial, Tom Pecora's Hofstra squad is currently in third place, bubbling under at 11-3. In justifying my "sell" position, I've often pointed to the Pride's one glaring weakness: free throws. Hofstra is the worst team in the CAA at the line, with a 65.1 percent freebie percentage, which places them in the bottom 50 nationally.
But the scoreboard says Hofstra wins games: six in a row at the moment, and 18 overall. So the question has to be asked: how important is free-throw percentage, anyway?
Obviously, there are more important stats when it comes to winning basketball, the ones that have to do with shooting and rebounds and a team's ability to actually get to the line. Out of context, FT percent doesn't tell you much: the current upper echelon includes teams that win a lot of games (21-3 Gonzaga shoots 79.3 percent) as well as squads that don't (New Hampshire, 77.3 percent). Two of the top five in the category have losing records: 9-15 UNH and 10-11 St. Joseph's, putting a new twist on the term "charity stripe."
Yesterday we looked at what happens when you make more free throws than your opponent shoots (answer: an 80 percent chance of victory), but let's take it from a simpler perspective today. If you have a better percentage from the line than the other team, will you win?
Yes, but certainly not all the time. In 2005-06, teams that have outshot their opponents percentage-wise from the line have won at a .577 clip. The schools that sit atop the polls are the ones who have done it most often, stretching this particular statistical spectrum: Connecticut's done it 11 times so far, and have won every one of those games. Gonzaga is at 17-2 (21-3 overall), Villanova's 16-2 (20-2), and Memphis is 10-0 (22-2). Duke (23-1 overall), no strangers to the stripe late in ball games, are 18-1 when they enjoy a better free-throw percentage.
In Mid-Majorville, we have Birmingham-Southern at 9-2 (17-6 overall) when it shoots better from the line, which has helped them share the precipice of the Big South with Winthrop (which is 8-1). Delaware State also is 9-2 and it has risen to the top of the MEAC. In-game foul shooting supremacy is a good leading indicator among the four Missouri Valley teams that currently own 11-4 league records: Southern Illinois (9-3), Wichita State (13-5), Creighton (8-4) and Northern Iowa (13-1).
And of course, there are the oddballs -- each with their own reasons for not being able to win despite good foul shooting. St. Francis (Pa.) and Morehead State have been the better team from the line 14 times, but they're both 3-11 in those games -- in both cases, it's cold shooting from everywhere else on the floor that does them in. Eastern Illinois (least efficient offense in the OVC) is an even worse 3-12, and Dartmouth (Ivy-worst D) is 1-10.
Hofstra, for its part, has managed to outshoot the other guys at the stripe six times in 22 ball games; in those games, the Pride are undefeated. But when they find themselves in Richmond next month, engaged in a close win-or-go-home CAA playoff game, Pride fans should bite their nails and hope the other team doesn't foul them. Just remember the fact that they score on 52.9 percent of their possessions, the 29th-best floor percentage in the country … best to win it while the clock's running."
-Kyle Whelliston for ESPN.com
See you Wednesday at Trask.
The Hawks are also in the bubble watch placed in the others with at large chance category along with GMU and Hofstra.
"NC Wilmington [19-7 (12-3), RPI: 45, SOS: 120] Worth mentioning if UNCW can win the CAA regular-season crown. RPI is dicey for a mid-major at-large. 9-6 road/neutral record helps, but two sub-150 losses don't.
George Mason [19-5 (13-2), RPI: 27, SOS: 81] GMU looking more and more like a legit at-large team, especially if the Patriots can hold off UNCW and Hofstra in the CAA. 4-5 vs RPI Top 100. Game at Wichita State could be an at-large play-in game.
Hofstra [18-4 (11-3), RPI: 56, SOS: 252] Probably not real likely with such a weak SOS, but Pride are one loss behind George Mason and could still snag the CAA crown; would the Committee show some mid-major Pride?"
And Kyle Whelliston had this to say about us in his latest blog entry:
"Top-five Tuesday
When I chat on ESPN.com or browse through my mailbag, the most common sentence-opening phrase is, "Where's the love for … " Don't get me wrong, I have love for all my mid-major brothers and sisters, but please keep in mind that part of my job is to simplify and distill a chaotic world of over 220 teams that play outside the power conferences. There's only so much love to go around.
That being said, there are definitely some teams that haven't received the column inches they've deserved here at The Mid Life, and it's time to correct that. They might play in the long second-place shadow of a league-leading team, or they may be just now starting to peak after a rough stretch. Or maybe they've simply dropped a couple of games at inopportune junctures, games that won't mean anything come tourney time. Here are the top five slept-on teams that may be best positioned to earn some national love in March...
1. UNC Wilmington (Colonial) -- The Seahawks earned some early headlines when they swept the Laramie, Wyo., pod of the BCA Invitational, but they fell off the radar when they lost three straight over Christmas to Charleston, East Carolina and Old Dominion. While that streak (and no BracketBusters participation) have likely killed the Seahawks' NCAA at-large chances, their seven wins in eight games have positioned them just one game behind George Mason for the league lead. While UNCW isn't that impressive shooting-wise, its defense is stifling, only allowing 58.9 points per game (58.2 in conference tilts), and its .874 points allowed per opponent's possession gives them the 10th-best defensive rating in the country. And like Butler, ball control is key: Despite UNCW's lackluster 42.7 percent field-goal percentage, the Seahawks lead the CAA in A/TO (1.2), turnover rate (18.6 percent percent) and assisted-basket percentage (62.2 percent)."
And about Hofstra:
"K-Dub's krazy fact of the day
Speaking of the Colonial, Tom Pecora's Hofstra squad is currently in third place, bubbling under at 11-3. In justifying my "sell" position, I've often pointed to the Pride's one glaring weakness: free throws. Hofstra is the worst team in the CAA at the line, with a 65.1 percent freebie percentage, which places them in the bottom 50 nationally.
But the scoreboard says Hofstra wins games: six in a row at the moment, and 18 overall. So the question has to be asked: how important is free-throw percentage, anyway?
Obviously, there are more important stats when it comes to winning basketball, the ones that have to do with shooting and rebounds and a team's ability to actually get to the line. Out of context, FT percent doesn't tell you much: the current upper echelon includes teams that win a lot of games (21-3 Gonzaga shoots 79.3 percent) as well as squads that don't (New Hampshire, 77.3 percent). Two of the top five in the category have losing records: 9-15 UNH and 10-11 St. Joseph's, putting a new twist on the term "charity stripe."
Yesterday we looked at what happens when you make more free throws than your opponent shoots (answer: an 80 percent chance of victory), but let's take it from a simpler perspective today. If you have a better percentage from the line than the other team, will you win?
Yes, but certainly not all the time. In 2005-06, teams that have outshot their opponents percentage-wise from the line have won at a .577 clip. The schools that sit atop the polls are the ones who have done it most often, stretching this particular statistical spectrum: Connecticut's done it 11 times so far, and have won every one of those games. Gonzaga is at 17-2 (21-3 overall), Villanova's 16-2 (20-2), and Memphis is 10-0 (22-2). Duke (23-1 overall), no strangers to the stripe late in ball games, are 18-1 when they enjoy a better free-throw percentage.
In Mid-Majorville, we have Birmingham-Southern at 9-2 (17-6 overall) when it shoots better from the line, which has helped them share the precipice of the Big South with Winthrop (which is 8-1). Delaware State also is 9-2 and it has risen to the top of the MEAC. In-game foul shooting supremacy is a good leading indicator among the four Missouri Valley teams that currently own 11-4 league records: Southern Illinois (9-3), Wichita State (13-5), Creighton (8-4) and Northern Iowa (13-1).
And of course, there are the oddballs -- each with their own reasons for not being able to win despite good foul shooting. St. Francis (Pa.) and Morehead State have been the better team from the line 14 times, but they're both 3-11 in those games -- in both cases, it's cold shooting from everywhere else on the floor that does them in. Eastern Illinois (least efficient offense in the OVC) is an even worse 3-12, and Dartmouth (Ivy-worst D) is 1-10.
Hofstra, for its part, has managed to outshoot the other guys at the stripe six times in 22 ball games; in those games, the Pride are undefeated. But when they find themselves in Richmond next month, engaged in a close win-or-go-home CAA playoff game, Pride fans should bite their nails and hope the other team doesn't foul them. Just remember the fact that they score on 52.9 percent of their possessions, the 29th-best floor percentage in the country … best to win it while the clock's running."
-Kyle Whelliston for ESPN.com
See you Wednesday at Trask.
posted by TAH at 10:08 PM
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